Both backtests use a $10,000 basis from 2008-04 to 2026-04 (~18 years). Results assume frictionless execution at close prices. Real-world adds slippage, capacity limits, taxes, and behavioral drag — treat as relative comparison, not forecast.
WeeklyML · Backtest Performance
CAGR 24.4%· Sharpe 0.96
790 weekly picks · 2008-04-07 → 2026-04-13 · 18.0 years · $10,000 basis → $509,650
CAGR
24.4%
Sharpe
0.96
Win Rate
54%
790 picks
Max DD
-48.9%
Equity Curve · $10K basis · log scale
Updated 4/30/2026
By Year
| Year | Return | Wins | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | +14.8% | 20/39 | 51% |
| 2009 | +50.7% | 30/52 | 58% |
| 2010 | +15.5% | 26/51 | 51% |
| 2011 | -8.0% | 24/52 | 46% |
| 2012 | +16.4% | 31/53 | 58% |
| 2013 | +40.1% | 31/52 | 60% |
| 2014 | -29.8% | 24/52 | 46% |
| 2015 | -10.7% | 20/51 | 39% |
| 2016 | +46.8% | 25/39 | 64% |
| 2019 | -3.3% | 19/40 | 48% |
| 2020 | +26.7% | 24/52 | 46% |
| 2021 | +65.2% | 30/52 | 58% |
| 2022 | +38.8% | 32/50 | 64% |
| 2023 | +175.3% | 36/53 | 68% |
| 2024 | +30.1% | 26/51 | 51% |
| 2025 | +29.7% | 22/39 | 56% |
| 2026 | +23.2% | 8/12 | 67% |
PatternSleeve · Backtest Performance
CAGR 38.7%· Sharpe 1.93
1,319 trades · 2008-04-15 → 2026-04-24 · N=5 slots · chandelier 3-ATR · $10,000 basis → $3,633,662
CAGR
38.7%
Sharpe
1.93
Max DD
-20.6%
Trades
1,319
0 open at end
Equity Curve · $10K basis · log scale
Updated 5/1/2026
Recent Trades · last 25
| Ticker | Pattern | Entry | Exit | Outcome | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH | range breakout 50d | 2026-04-22 | 2026-04-24 | horizon | +1.15% |
| MRNA | cup and handle | 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-24 | horizon | -5.51% |
| CMI | fib mtf confluence bullish | 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-24 | target | +5.41% |
| AAL | fib mtf confluence bullish | 2026-04-15 | 2026-04-21 | stop | -3.92% |
| DLR | range breakout 50d | 2026-04-09 | 2026-04-16 | target | +7.18% |
| EMR | double bottom | 2026-04-09 | 2026-04-24 | horizon | -0.76% |
| INTC | double bottom | 2026-04-09 | 2026-04-13 | target | +11.61% |
| UAL | fib mtf confluence bullish | 2026-04-09 | 2026-04-17 | target | +6.87% |
| HPE | double bottom | 2026-03-25 | 2026-03-25 | target | +5.70% |
| COP | range breakout 50d | 2026-03-23 | 2026-04-01 | stop | +3.84% |
| DVN | range breakout 50d | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-27 | target | +14.39% |
| SHEL | range breakout 50d | 2026-03-09 | 2026-03-17 | target | +8.02% |
| HPE | double bottom | 2026-03-02 | 2026-03-24 | target | +12.79% |
| OXY | range breakout 50d | 2026-02-20 | 2026-03-02 | target | +5.43% |
| DVN | fib mtf confluence bullish | 2026-02-04 | 2026-02-19 | target | +6.51% |
| VZ | range breakout 50d | 2026-02-02 | 2026-03-03 | horizon | +14.12% |
| PEP | double bottom | 2026-02-02 | 2026-02-04 | target | +7.87% |
| LMT | range breakout 50d | 2026-01-30 | 2026-03-02 | horizon | +8.97% |
| SHW | fib mtf confluence bullish | 2026-01-29 | 2026-02-27 | stop | +3.75% |
| BA | range breakout 50d | 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | stop | -2.93% |
| SBUX | double bottom | 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | stop | +1.43% |
| INTC | range breakout 50d | 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | target | +10.83% |
| CLF | fib mtf confluence bullish | 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-14 | target | +4.18% |
| CLF | fib mtf confluence bullish | 2026-01-12 | 2026-01-14 | target | +10.36% |
| LMT | fib mtf confluence bullish | 2026-01-12 | 2026-01-29 | target | +13.40% |